The matters at the heart of widening divisions between Madeirans and immigrants. The employment of immigrants in precious jobs opportunities. This allegedly leading to increasing emigration of Madeirans to find work away from home. Also there is a wide perception that high immigration puts a downward pressure on wage structures for local people.

This has the origin of Fransisco Gomes of the extreme right political party, Chega, although often mentioned in social media too.

Madeira is in a golden age of employment. Unemployment is at its lowest level for many years, and continuing to decline.

The difficulty in filling vacancies has seen employers searching for staff overseas for several years now, and is still continuing.

Most emigration now is for one of several reasons.

1. Job fit. Youngsters coming out of higher education cannot find suitable employment for their chosen field of work may try for work in Portugal, other countries in the EU, or even outside Europe.
2. Lack of interest in agriculture and other low paying jobs, mainly in tourism.
3. Family reunification, or the search for a better life away from Madeira. Housing prices and availability may be starting to have an effect on moving away for these reasons.

Immigrants are taking jobs because they are not attractive to Madeirans. Agriculture and tourism are common examples. Other more specialised jobs are being filled with immigrants simply because the skilled manpower is simply not available locally. Construction is the area in the spotlight currently.

So Madeirans are continuing to emigrate, but it is not in the masses previously recorded, nor through the absolute necessity to find work because the island cannot support the population in employment.

I used AI to look at the issue of downward pressure on wages as the connection, if it exists, is certainly not due to immigrants being employed to fill Madeira’s vacancies.

The relationship between low job wages and immigration in Portugal is complex and has been the subject of research. Here is a summary of what studies and reports indicate:

Impact on Madeirans wages is generally not significant, but some negative impact exists in specific groups of immigrants. Several studies suggest that immigration does not have a statistically significant or substantial negative impact on the average wages of native Portuguese workers.

However, some research points to a tendency towards a negative impact, especially in the lowest wage groups and for natives with low education levels. Men in these groups may also be more negatively affected than women.

There is a positive effect in high-skilled occupations, and some studies show a positive and statistically significant effect on native wages in high-skilled occupations, possibly due to increased productivity.

Public perception hower does not necessarily reflect research results. A significant portion of the Portuguese public (around 68.9% in one study) believes that the presence of migrants does affects wage levels, keeping them low, even though academic studies don’t find strong statistical proof.

Lower wages for immigrants is certainly a fact. Immigrants in Portugal, like in many other countries, generally earn lower wages than native workers. This wage gap can be substantial. One report states that immigrants earn 29% less than locals, on average.

This gap is often attributed to factors like undervaluation of foreign education and experience. Skills and qualifications acquired abroad may not be fully recognized or valued in the Portuguese labor market. Also the lack of language fluency is an important factor.

Discrimination and exclusion is also an important factor as immigrant workers can face discrimination, including “double discrimination” for being migrants and women.

Portuguese workers are less interested in, such as construction, agriculture, tourism, and services, which tend to have lower wages and less favorable working conditions.

Temporary or fixed-term contracts are more common for immigrants, which are often associated with lower wages. However, immigrant wages tend to catch up with native wages over time, as they gain experience in Portugal, this convergence is often incomplete, and they may never fully converge.

Minimum wage and other Portuguese legal requirements in employment are  equal for Portuguese and immigrant workers, although immigrants workers are often paid lower wages because their qualifications are not recognised in Portugal.

Future slowing of native wage growth is a strong possibility now, as Portugal’s political system swings towards the right and extreme right. Left wing political parties are fast becoming extinct. These parties were always the strongest defender of fair wages and decent working conditions for local workers.

In conclusion, while there isn’t a strong, consistent statistical correlation proving that immigration depresses native wages in Portugal, especially beyond certain low-skilled segments, it is clear that immigrants themselves often face lower wages and less favorable working conditions. This is partly due to the sectors they predominantly work in, the undervaluation of their skills, and other integration challenges. Immigrants play a vital role in filling labor demands in low-wage sectors that native workers often avoid.