Starting with the national situation (AI assisted):
* Democratic Alliance (AD):
* Led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, the center-right AD won the election.
* They secured approximately 32.7% of the vote.
* They gained 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament.
* This represents an increase in seats compared to the 2024 election.
* Socialist Party (PS):
* The PS suffered significant losses.
* They obtained approximately 23% of the vote.
* They secured 58 seats.
* This is a substantial decrease in seats from the 2024 election.
* Chega (CH):
* The far-right Chega party experienced a significant surge.
* They obtained 22.6% of the vote yesterday, but await the results of the overseas ballots which should give one more mandate
* They also secured 58 seats (+2?)
* This is a notable increase in seats compared to the 2024 election, highlighting the rise of far-right influence in Portuguese politics.
* Key Observations:
* The election resulted in another minority government, indicating continued political fragmentation.
* Chega’s strong performance has significantly altered the Portuguese political landscape.
* The Socialist party suffered a large loss of seats, along with other left wing parties, leaving the left with very little political representation.
There are 4 mandates yet undetermined in these results. These are based on votes from Portuguese emigrants. Chega won 2 of these mandates in the previous elections.
The situation in Madeira was similar to the above, and of course was incorporated in the national summary above.
AD won in almost all of Madeira. However Chega achieved their best result ever, and displaced the other political parties to easily become the second most supported party in Madeira. After regional elections in March 2025, they were the 4th political force.
AD 41% (3), Chega 21%, PS 13%, JPP 12% filled the 6 mandates for Lisbon. Abstention 45%
What does this mean for Madeira and it’s representation in the Republic? Chega grew immensely through its anti-immigration pledge. Other campaign matters were much the same across all parties with representation.
What does this mean for immigrants in Madeira? At this stage, nothing tangible for those with and waiting for residency status. These immigrants are secured though the Constitution and existing laws (incorporated through EU legislation).
However, the huge surge in support for Chega, substantially through its anti immigration propaganda has given the party much more visibility and legitimacy, and without any doubt will be more active and noticeable in voicing its racist and hate stance.
I spent some time today browsing immigrant social media and news sites, and so far the situation has not received a single mention. Immigrants, having no presence in Madeiran politics, have either not been aware of yesterday’s events or just don’t care.
For Chega to have any chance in fulfilling its ambitions to rid Madeira of legal immigrants, Portugal would have to leave Europe. That is extremely unlikely to happen in the near future, even if they managed a majority coalition with AD.
However the Constitution of Portugal can be changed, along with portuguese laws (simple majority). Certain parts cannot be changed, other parts can be amended with a two thirds majority (154) in the Portuguese Parliament. This could theoretically happen with full collaboration between the three right to extreme right parties. Although this seems unlikely, as AD has said on numerous occasions that it will not work with Chega. However, as the two parties had already agreed a form of coalition in the Azores Regional Parliament, that cannot be entirely believed. For example, approval of the 2026 state budget proposal of AD will be very challenging later this year without the support of Chega. As governments without an overall majority often do, there will be some cross voting that will grant some concessions to the smaller party.
Portugal has 2.3 million emigrants throughout all foreign countries. The majority within Europe. Unfortunately I couldn’t find separate statistics for Madeira, but certainly the number is in hundreds of thousands. If Portugal were to leave Europe in the coming years, the impact of returnees would be unthinkable.
Healing Madeira 